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SEXY X2
MAGAZINE - AUGUST 2013
E
lectric car sales will triple in the U.S. each
year from 20,000 in 201 to 60,000 in 2012 to 180,000 in
2013, showing sales similar to the early years of hybrid cars.
Accenture and some others forecast over one million electric
vehicles in the United States by 2015. Clean Fleet Report
forecasts one million globally by the end of 2016.
Over 10 million electric vehicles are possible by 2020, es-
pecially if oil prices rise as battery prices fall. Single electric
utilities have scenarios for charging over one million electric
vehicles in their own service area by 2020. With renewable
energy investment required of utilities in 30 states, these
utilities are most interested in night time charging of electric
vehicles with wind, geothermal, and hydropower. Utilities
are also implementing smart grids and incentives for off-
peak charging.
Over 100 competitors are fighting for U.S. share of the
electric car market. Some may be struggle to get significant
share due to time delays and cost of safety and other regu-
latory approvals, delays in funding, or unpleasant surprises
from a supplier. It is a tough business. Even Tesla had to
add 700 pounds and two years to get the first Roadsters in
customers’ hands.
Fisker offers a beautiful $100,000 Karma luxury sports
coupe. Coda offers an all-electric sedan with more range
than the LEAF and Focus Electric. Both companies struggle
to assure buyers that the companies will be there for the
next 10 years to service and support their cars. Battery
makers, such as Panasonic, Sanyo, LG Chem, and Samsung
see strong growth, while others such as A123 and EnerDel
struggle in the face of intense competition.
Asia Prepares for the U.S. Market
For three years, we have read about China’s plans to bring
electric cars to the U.S. Although China’s U.S. ambitions have slipped
badly, its automakers cannot be ignored. China has over 100 million
light electric vehicles, e-bikes and e-scooters in daily use. Its new
5-year plan calls for 100 million electric charging stations in China
by 2020. BYD, with gold-plated investors such as Warren Buffett,
has only put a few hundred electric vehicles on the road in China
and continues to delay introduction to the United States. CODA with
its $39,995 sedan has started delivery with more range than the
Nissan Leaf and Ford Focus Electric. Volvo, now owned by China’s
Geely has the new C30 Drive E Electric, but the Volvo electric car
will be selling only in Europe in the short-term. SAIC, Chery, and hun-
dreds of players are also preparing EVs for China. India might bring
us a Maharinda Reva or Nano EV that under prices everyone, but
not by 2012, the basis for this Top 10 Report.
European Innovation
Europe, with higher fuel prices and fewer oil subsidies, is forecast
to have more electric cars by 2020 than the United States. Better
Place may deliver 100,000 of the Renault Fluence with its switch-
able battery to Israel, Denmark, Australia, and even U.S. taxi fleets.
Volkswagen may teach everyone how to extend range by making
vehicles light. The concept Up Light weighs just over 1,500 pounds,
but it is only a concept. We loved test-driving the Volkswagen Golf
Blue E-Motion, but do not plan to buy it in the U.S. before 2014. You
will likely be able to buy the Audi E-Tron sooner. For fun in the city
in 2013, the Fiat 500e may be what you want. Competition will be
tough. There is a lot of European innovation that did not make this
Top 10 List, which focuses on the U.S. market for the next 12 months.
Please bookmark this Top 10 List and check back as we update.
Exciting new electric cars are being driven on the U.S. streets and
freeways. Nissan is an early mover with battery-electric cars and
General Motors with plug-in hybrids. Competition increases from
Mitsubishi, Ford, Toyota, Honda, and dozens of Asian, European and
American innovators. The winner will be the customer.